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support@wad-law.net

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is PolyMacro?

PolyMacro is a macro intelligence app for traders. It provides regime classification, conviction scores, divergence detection, AI-tagged news, economic calendar, and prediction market probabilities — all on your phone.

What's included in the free tier?

The free tier includes: 20 most recent news articles, basic chart ranges (1D, 5D, 1M), full economic calendar, full asset price list with daily changes, and real-time news via WebSocket.

What does Premium include?

Premium unlocks: macro regime dashboard, conviction scores with factor breakdowns, cross-asset divergence alerts, prediction market probabilities, full chart ranges (up to 2 years), compare overlay, advanced news filters, and per-asset context with driver analysis.

How much does Premium cost?

€19.99/month with a 7-day free trial. Cancel anytime.

How do I cancel my subscription?

Go to Settings on your iPhone → tap your Apple ID → Subscriptions → PolyMacro → Cancel Subscription. You'll retain Premium access until the end of your billing period.

What data sources do you use?

News from 23+ curated macro RSS feeds and financial news APIs. Market data from public government and central bank sources. Economic calendar from professional financial data providers. Prediction markets from Polymarket.

Is market data real-time?

No. Market data (prices, yields, indices) refreshes hourly from public sources. This is end-of-day and intraday delayed data — not a live trading feed. PolyMacro is designed for macro analysis and positioning, not intraday trading. News, however, flows in real-time via WebSocket.

What are macro regimes?

Regimes classify the current macro environment into discrete states using quantitative models applied to real market data — not opinions or forecasts. There are 6 core regimes:

  • Inflation — uses TIPS real rates, breakeven inflation, and nominal yield directions to classify states like Financial Repression, Goldilocks, or Hawkish Response.
  • Dollar — DXY vs 200-day moving average and 60-day momentum. Structural Bull, Structural Bear, or transitional states.
  • Yield Curve — relative rate of change in US 2Y vs 10Y yields. Bull/Bear Steepening or Flattening.
  • Carry — VIX level and AUD/JPY vs 200-day MA. Healthy, Deteriorating, or Crisis.
  • Credit — high yield credit spread (OAS) levels. Benign, Tightening, Stress, or Crisis.
  • Volatility — VIX and MOVE index thresholds. Low, Normal, Elevated, or Crisis.

Regimes recompute every hour when fresh market data arrives. Full methodology is described in our research blog.

What are cross-asset ratios?

Three ratios that signal macro shifts:

  • Gold/Silver — below 65 = reflationary (risk-on), above 85 = fear/deflation (flight to monetary metal).
  • Gold/Copper — a leading indicator for economic growth. Rising ratio signals recession risk (leads PMI by 2–3 months).
  • Gold/Oil — measures stagflation dynamics. Rising ratio signals stagflation risk.

What are conviction scores?

Conviction scores are weighted factor models that synthesize multiple regime signals into a single directional score from −5 (Strong Bearish) to +5 (Strong Bullish) for Gold, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY. Each score includes a full factor breakdown showing which macro drivers are contributing and by how much. Scores update hourly alongside regimes.

What are divergences?

Divergence detection monitors 11 cross-asset pairs for breakdowns in their historical correlation. When two assets that normally move together start diverging beyond 2 standard deviations, it signals a potential mean-reversion opportunity or a structural shift. Divergences are classified as HIGH (σ > 3 or duration > 20 days), MEDIUM, or LOW priority.

How do alerts work?

Alerts are a Premium feature. You can create up to 10 alerts per account. Alerts support 8 types:

  • Price — fires when an asset crosses above or below a threshold (level-crossing, not continuous).
  • Regime — fires when a regime transitions to a target state (e.g. credit enters "Stress").
  • Conviction — fires when a conviction score transitions to a target label.
  • Divergence — fires when a cross-asset divergence is detected at a given sigma level.
  • Calendar — fires on economic calendar events, optionally only on surprises.
  • News — fires on market-moving news, optionally filtered by asset.
  • Economic Data — fires when a new economic indicator value is released.
  • Compound — combine 2–5 conditions with AND/OR logic.

Each alert has a configurable cooldown (15 min to 24 hours) and can optionally be one-shot (auto-disables after firing once). When triggered, you receive a push notification that deep-links back into the app.

What are compound alerts?

Compound alerts let you combine 2–5 conditions with AND or OR logic. For example: "Gold above $2500 AND credit regime is Adverse" fires only when both conditions are simultaneously true. Sub-conditions can mix any alert type — price, regime, conviction, divergence, calendar, news, or economic data.

How does the Compare feature work?

Compare lets you overlay multiple assets on a single chart, normalized to percentage change from a common start date. Select any combination of the 36 tracked assets and choose a time range (up to 2 years). The crosshair shows all asset values at the cursor position. Compare is a Premium feature.

How often is data refreshed?

Market prices update hourly. Regime classifications and conviction scores recompute every hour after fresh price data arrives. News flows in real-time via WebSocket. Economic calendar updates in near-real-time (within 60 seconds of official release). Economic indicator releases are detected within seconds using precision polling.

How many assets are tracked?

36 instruments across indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX, Nikkei, etc.), government bonds (US 2Y–30Y, German, Japanese, Australian), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper), forex (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, etc.), credit spreads (IG, HY), and volatility (VIX, MOVE). All with 2 years of historical data.

How is news tagged to assets?

Every article is analyzed by an AI model that identifies which of the 36 tracked instruments are affected. This powers per-asset news feeds and asset-filtered alerts. The tagging runs automatically as articles are ingested from 23+ macro news sources.

What does "market-moving" mean on a news article?

Articles likely to cause near-term price action are classified as market-moving by AI. These are highlighted with a red badge and include a "Why it matters" — a one-sentence explanation of the expected transmission mechanism to markets.

What happens to my alerts if my subscription expires?

Your alerts are paused — not deleted. They stop evaluating and no push notifications are sent. If you resubscribe, all your alerts resume automatically without any reconfiguration.

Can I restore my purchase on a new device?

Yes. Your subscription is tied to your Apple ID. Sign in on the new device and your Premium access will sync automatically.

Is this financial advice?

No. PolyMacro provides data, analysis, and quantitative models for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for details.

How do I delete my account?

Email support@wad-law.net with your request. All account data will be permanently deleted within 30 days.